mdl - Population Model

Copying Population Model (mdl)

The program mdl allows you to run a simple model of human population based on input parameters. The results of mdl allow you to match the totals published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census and used by popclk.

For instance, mdl allows you to make tradeoffs between life expectancy, the total number of children per female, the fertility period of the female, the mortality rates during different stages of life, the mortality rate of the mother during childbirth, and the rate at which old age accelerates.

Syntax

The following is an example of mdl execution.

      mdl <mdl.cfg 2>mdl.err | less

In this example:

Parameter File

This is a sample parameter file:

max_years = 100
max_age = 80
starting_pop = 1000000000
first_cb_age = 18
last_cb_age = 40
children = 6.0
max_attrition = 0.05
min_attrition = 0.01
cb_attrition = 0.01
old_age_attrition = 0.03
end

max_years

Integer.

The number of years to run the model.

Range: 1 - 999999999

max_age

Integer.

Life expectancy.

Range: 1 - 120

starting_pop

Integer.

World population at the beginning of the model.

Range: 1 - 1000000000

first_cb_age

Integer.

The earliest age when a female gives birth.

Range: 8 - 40

last_cb_age

Integer.

The last age when a female gives birth.

Range: 8 - 40

children

Real number.

The average number of children per female.

Range: 0.0000000001 - 25.0

max_attrition

Real number.

The maximum mortality rate at birth and during old age.

Range: 0.0000000001 - 0.999999999

min_attrition

Real number.

The minimum mortality rate at the midpoint of life.

Range: 0.0000000001 - 0.999999999

cb_attrition

Real number.

The mortality rate of the mother during childbirth.

Range: 0.0000000001 - 0.999999999

old_age_attrition

Real number.

Compounded mortality rate of a male or female who has exceeded life expectancy.

Range: 0.0000000001 - 0.999999999

end

No data.

The end of the configuration file.

Error Messages

Parse error occurs when

Comments

The population model assumes a population lacking sophisticated medical care. The childbirth mortality rate assumes a lack of adequate medical care.

Maximum and minimum attrition assumes a peaceful environment. The highest mortality rate occurs due to natural cause of death at the youngest and oldest stage of life.


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